NAPKINALPHA
Investment research that slaps.
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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. JUST REALLY GOOD AI.
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS THAT ACTUALLY SLAP
REFRAME
AAPL
Apple isn't a hardware company.
It's a subscription empire
wearing AirPods.
WHAT YOU SEE
iPhone Sales
WHAT IT IS
$100B Services
CONVICTION: HIGH+32%
THE GAP
META
You're paying for Zuck's VR hobby
and getting an ad monopoly for free.
THE MATH
Operating Income$58B
Reality Labs-$16B
CORE PROFIT$74B
P/E (CORE): 19x+45%
THE FLOW
NVDA
Every AI dollar flows through
the same toll booth.
AI CAPEX FLOW
Big Tech$200B
↓ 70%
Data Centers$140B
↓ 60%
NVIDIA$80B
MOAT: MONOPOLYMAX
⚠ THE RISK
TSLA
The one number that breaks
the Tesla thesis.
AUTO GROSS MARGIN
2022
25.9%
2023
18.2%
2024
16.3%
DEATH
~12%
STANCEWAIT
PATTERN
SHOP
Shopify is Amazon in 2012.
And nobody sees it.
AMZN '12SHOP '24
HiddenAWSPayments
Growth60%40%
AMZN 2012→2024
+2,000%
TIMEFRAME5-10 YRS
REFRAME
AAPL
Apple isn't a hardware company.
It's a subscription empire
wearing AirPods.
WHAT YOU SEE
iPhone Sales
WHAT IT IS
$100B Services
CONVICTION: HIGH+32%
THE GAP
META
You're paying for Zuck's VR hobby
and getting an ad monopoly for free.
THE MATH
Operating Income$58B
Reality Labs-$16B
CORE PROFIT$74B
P/E (CORE): 19x+45%
THE FLOW
NVDA
Every AI dollar flows through
the same toll booth.
AI CAPEX FLOW
Big Tech$200B
↓ 70%
Data Centers$140B
↓ 60%
NVIDIA$80B
MOAT: MONOPOLYMAX
⚠ THE RISK
TSLA
The one number that breaks
the Tesla thesis.
AUTO GROSS MARGIN
2022
25.9%
2023
18.2%
2024
16.3%
DEATH
~12%
STANCEWAIT
PATTERN
SHOP
Shopify is Amazon in 2012.
And nobody sees it.
AMZN '12SHOP '24
HiddenAWSPayments
Growth60%40%
AMZN 2012→2024
+2,000%
TIMEFRAME5-10 YRS