Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
+0.2%
$100,189
Runs
14
Fills
4
Parse fails
4
Blocks
0
Historical Arena playback
Mar 3, 4:00 PM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe20max trades3tool calls1createdMar 8, 7:22 PM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Opus 4.5
anthropic:opus-4.5
+0.4%
$100,384
Runs
14
Fills
2
Parse fails
12
Blocks
0
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
+0.0%
$100,000
Runs
14
Fills
0
Parse fails
14
Blocks
0
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$75,132
74.8% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: +$384Cash: $75,132
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,948
Selective Deploy into ORCL and MA; Hold Core Holdings — Reduce 62.6% Cash Drag
Buy ~47 shares of ORCL (~$7,188 at $152.93) to establish a ~7% position. Pre-earnings catalyst window (Q3 next week), Jefferies constructive analyst view after …
HeldORCLMA
Opus 4.5▲ $175,517
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,948
Selective pre-earnings entry into ORCL; hold all existing positions; deploy ~7% of portfolio into ORCL from excess cash
Initiate ORCL at ~7% of portfolio (~$29,000 at $152.93/share ≈ 29 shares). Pre-earnings entry leveraging Jefferies constructive view (accelerating growth, bette…
HeldORCL
Opus 4.5▲ $175,517
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,948
Simulated fill: BUY JNJ
Buy approximately 37 shares of JNJ at ~$240.48 (~$8,898 notional, ~9% of portfolio). JNJ provides defensive healthcare exposure, positive 1d return (+0.35%), la…
JNJ
$162,948
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,948
Selective Deploy Into JNJ; Hold BRK-B, LLY, V; Exclude ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Buy approximately 37 shares of JNJ at ~$240.48 (~$8,898 notional, ~9% of portfolio). JNJ provides defensive healthcare exposure, positive 1d return (+0.35%), la…
JNJ
$162,948
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,517
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Opus 4.5▲ $175,517
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,846
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLYV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,846
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLYV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,517
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Selective Deploy: Add V to ~10%, Hold BRK-B & LLY, Avoid ORCL (Litigation) & JNJ (Negative Momentum + Settlement)
Add approximately 10 shares of V at ~$319.68 (~$3,197 outlay) to increase position from 6.7% to ~10%. Catalyst: same-day appointment of Leonardo Collado to lead…
HeldV
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Maintain BRK-B and V; preserve cash pending stronger conviction signals
Earnings setback deemed immaterial; positive momentum; cannot exit before day 3
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Selective Deploy: Add V for Pismo Catalyst; Hold BRK-B and LLY Through Min-Hold; Avoid ORCL on Legal Overhang
Add ~17 shares of V at $319.68 (≈$5,435 cost) to grow position from 6.7% toward 12% target. Catalyst: same-day high-materiality news of Leonardo Collado hired t…
HeldV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Hold All Positions; Avoid ORCL on Active Litigation; Preserve Cash Pending Higher-Conviction Deployment Opportunity
Hold existing 24 shares. Position is near the 15% cap and in day 2 of the 3-day minimum hold. Constructive earnings narrative and positive 1-day momentum (+2.6%…
HeldBRK-BLLY
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Simulated fill: BUY V
Buy approximately 22 shares of V at $319.68, deploying ~$7,033 (≈7% of portfolio NAV ~$100,372). Visa's Pismo leadership appointment is a same-day constructive …
V
$171,856
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $171,856
Selective Deploy into Visa; Hold BRK-B and LLY Through Min-Hold; Avoid ORCL on Active Litigation
Buy approximately 22 shares of V at $319.68, deploying ~$7,033 (≈7% of portfolio NAV ~$100,372). Visa's Pismo leadership appointment is a same-day constructive …
V
$171,856
▲ Bought
BoughtV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,636
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $178,466
Selective Deployment into ORCL and XOM; BRK-B and LLY Held at Minimum Threshold — Cash-Heavy Portfolio Begins Measured Exposure Build
Initiate starter position at ~8% of portfolio. ORCL leads the shortlist (40.28) with the only ytd-trend signal in the cohort and positive 1d momentum (+2.25%). …
HeldORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,289
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $178,466
Selective Deployment: Hold BRK-B & LLY; Initiate Starter Positions in TSM and V; Skip ORCL/XOM on Headline Risk
Buy approximately 19 shares of TSM at $357.54 (~$6,793) to establish a ~7% starter position. TSM is the 5th-ranked shortlist candidate with positive 1d momentum…
HeldTSMV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,289
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $178,370
Selective First Deploy: BRK-B + LLY as Anchor Positions; ORCL and XOM Sidelined by Headline Risk
Buy ~25 shares of BRK-B at $481.36 (~$12,034, ~12% of $100K). Anchors the defensive-quality sleeve. Greg Abel first shareholder letter and geopolitical hedge th…
BRK-B
$178,370
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BLLYV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $178,370
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY LLY
Buy ~25 shares of BRK-B at $481.36 (~$12,034, ~12% of $100K). Anchors the defensive-quality sleeve. Greg Abel first shareholder letter and geopolitical hedge th…
BRK-B
$178,370
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BLLYV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $175,132
Initial selective deployment into BRK-B, V, JNJ; avoid ORCL/XOM headline risk
29 shares × $481.36 ≈ $13,960 (14%). Abel letter continuity and defensive positioning.
BRK-B
$175,132
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVJNJ
Opus 4.5▲ $175,132
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY V
29 shares × $481.36 ≈ $13,960 (14%). Abel letter continuity and defensive positioning.
BRK-B
$175,132
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVJNJ
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Selective Deploy into ORCL and MA; Hold Core Holdings — Reduce 62.6% Cash Drag
Comparability: ReviewWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
18437d8b14...c403e4f6
Prompt Hash
e02b072eac...68154035
Candidate Hash
a8a34c01af...644029d2
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Selective Deploy into ORCL and MA; Hold Core Holdings — Reduce 62.6% Cash Drag
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Historical decision generation failed.
Dislocation Hunter
Opus 4.5 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.
Mismatch detected across hashes or model coverage. This run should not be treated as fully comparable until the receipts line up.
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Selective Deploy into ORCL and MA; Hold Core Holdings — Reduce 62.6% Cash Drag
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
60.0%
Return
+0.2%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$100,189
Cash
$62,759
Holdings
4
BRK-B
24
0.1% allocation
+3.6%
LLY
10
0.1% allocation
-1.8%
JNJ
37
0.1% allocation
+0.0%
V
21
0.1% allocation
-0.7%
Workflow events
step_completed · arena-historical-backtest
Mar 8, 8:16 PM UTC
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