Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
+0.2%
$100,190
Runs
14
Fills
4
Parse fails
5
Blocks
2
Historical Arena playback
Mar 3, 4:00 PM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe20max trades3tool calls1createdMar 8, 7:25 PM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Opus 4.5
anthropic:opus-4.5
+0.3%
$100,346
Runs
14
Fills
1
Parse fails
11
Blocks
0
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.1%
$99,904
Runs
14
Fills
2
Parse fails
7
Blocks
0
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
+0.0%
$100,000
Runs
14
Fills
0
Parse fails
14
Blocks
0
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$90,373
90.1% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: +$346Cash: $90,373
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
Selective Deploy into ORCL Pre-Earnings Dislocation; Initiate MA on Stablecoin Catalyst; Hold Core Positions
Buy ~59 shares of ORCL at $152.93 ≈ $9,023 ≈ 9% of portfolio (~$100,200 total value). Pre-earnings asymmetric setup: stock down ~60% from peak with reversal sig…
HeldORCLMA
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,812
Initiating a tactical 8% position in Oracle (ORCL) ahead of earnings, capitalizing on contrarian signals despite recent negative news.
Initiating a tactical position in the top-ranked candidate ahead of a potential earnings catalyst. Sized to balance conviction with the inherent risks of the ev…
HeldORCL
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,719
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
ORCL Pre-Earnings Contrarian Entry; Hold Existing Book; Selective Cash Deployment Into ORCL At ~9%
Initiate ~59 shares at ~$152.93 (~$9,023 notional, ~9% of portfolio NAV ~$100,246). Pre-earnings contrarian setup: 50-60% drawdown, Jefferies sees accelerating …
HeldORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,812
Initiating Tactical Position in ORCL Ahead of Earnings Amid Mixed News Flow
Executing a buy to establish a new position in ORCL, aligning with the thesis to capture potential upside from the upcoming earnings report.
HeldORCL
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,719
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate JNJ position at ~6% portfolio weight (~$6,012 at $240.48/share, ~25 shares). Deploys idle cash to begin addressing the 68% cash structural drag. JNJ is…
JNJ
$168,622
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,812
Holding Cash as Legal Headwinds Surface for Top-Ranked Candidate ORCL
Maintaining current position as no new compelling evidence warrants a change.
HeldVBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,719
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Buy ~53 shares of XOM at $151.15 (~$8,011 notional, ~8% of portfolio). XOM is the cleanest actionable candidate: positive 1d-momentum, no litigation overhang, n…
XOM
$168,622
▲ Bought
BoughtXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,812
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldVBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,719
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
Selective Deployment into BRK-B; Hold V and LLY; Avoid ORCL/JNJ/JPM on Legal and Momentum Headwinds
Add 24 shares of BRK-B at ~$498.68 (~$11,968 total). This brings BRK-B weight from 11.95% to ~14.4%, within the 15% cap. Supported by constructive operating ear…
BRK-B
$168,622
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $168,622
Simulated fill: BUY BRK-B
Add 24 shares of BRK-B at ~$498.68 (~$11,968 total). This brings BRK-B weight from 11.95% to ~14.4%, within the 15% cap. Supported by constructive operating ear…
BRK-B
$168,622
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,812
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldVBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,719
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Selective Deploy: Add to V and BRK-B; Avoid ORCL/JNJ on Litigation Overhang; Hold LLY
Add ~13 shares of V at ~$319.68 (~$4,156 per share lot, total ~$4,156 incremental). Target moves V from 8.9% toward ~13% of portfolio. Justified by same-day hig…
HeldV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,908
Initiating Position in Visa (V) to Deploy Cash, Avoiding Legally-Entangled Oracle
Establish a new position in Visa to reduce cash drag. The company has a positive catalyst and presents a better risk-adjusted opportunity than the top-ranked bu…
V
$180,908
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,908
Simulated fill: BUY V
Establish a new position in Visa to reduce cash drag. The company has a positive catalyst and presents a better risk-adjusted opportunity than the top-ranked bu…
V
$180,908
▲ Bought
BoughtV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Hold BRK-B through minimum holding period; preserve 90% cash amid litigation noise on top candidates
Day 2 of 3-day min hold; +2.6% momentum with earnings concern dismissed; no action required
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $190,498
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $190,498
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $190,498
Holding Cash Amid Legal Risks in Top-Ranked Candidates ORCL and JNJ
Holding cash to avoid exposure to candidates with high legal and headline risk.
HeldORCLJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $190,498
Initiating Deployment with BRK-B, Citing Momentum and Favorable News; Avoiding ORCL on Litigation Risk
Initiating a 10% position in BRK-B to deploy cash, based on strong momentum and supportive news, while avoiding the litigation risk associated with top candidat…
BRK-B
$190,498
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $190,498
Simulated fill: BUY BRK-B
Initiating a 10% position in BRK-B to deploy cash, based on strong momentum and supportive news, while avoiding the litigation risk associated with top candidat…
BRK-B
$190,498
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Selective Deploy into Visa (V); Hold BRK-B & LLY Through Minimum Holding Period; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Buy ~28 shares of Visa at $319.68 (~$8,951 total, ~9% of portfolio). Positive same-day catalyst: Visa appoints veteran Leonardo Collado to lead Pismo's global g…
V
$170,651
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,651
Simulated fill: BUY V
Buy ~28 shares of Visa at $319.68 (~$8,951 total, ~9% of portfolio). Positive same-day catalyst: Visa appoints veteran Leonardo Collado to lead Pismo's global g…
V
$170,651
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,747
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $179,478
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Cautious BRK-B Position to Deploy Cash
Initiating a defensive position in BRK-B due to a favorable geopolitical catalyst and its relatively safer profile compared to other candidates.
HeldBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,490
Hold BRK-B through minimum holding period; maintain elevated cash amid mixed signals
Continue holding through minimum 3-day period. News flow around Greg Abel leadership transition and Berkshire performance remains supportive. No disconfirming s…
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $179,478
Selective Deploy: Initiate XOM as Defensive Hedge; Hold BRK-B & LLY; Avoid ORCL Near-Term
Buy ~43 shares of XOM at $149.85 (~$6,443 total, ~8% of portfolio). Same-day high-materiality energy sector coverage (news:1) and oil majors rally during broade…
HeldXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,490
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $179,378
Selective Deploy into BRK-B, LLY, and V from 100% Cash; Exclude ORCL (Legal Risk) and XOM (Conflicted Evidence)
Highest same-day news conviction in the shortlist: three high-materiality headlines frame Greg Abel's leadership transition positively, Q4 performance under Buf…
BRK-B
$179,378
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BLLYV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $179,378
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY LLY
Highest same-day news conviction in the shortlist: three high-materiality headlines frame Greg Abel's leadership transition positively, Q4 performance under Buf…
BRK-B
$179,378
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BLLYV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Opus 4.5▲ $190,373
Initiate 10% position in BRK-B on defensive quality thesis; hold 90% cash pending cleaner setups
Initiate starter position: 20 shares × $481.36 ≈ $9,627 (9.6% of portfolio). Defensive quality thesis supported by Abel continuity letter and geopolitical hedge…
BRK-B
$190,373
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Opus 4.5▲ $190,373
Simulated fill: BUY BRK-B
Initiate starter position: 20 shares × $481.36 ≈ $9,627 (9.6% of portfolio). Defensive quality thesis supported by Abel continuity letter and geopolitical hedge…
BRK-B
$190,373
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Selective Deploy into ORCL Pre-Earnings Dislocation; Initiate MA on Stablecoin Catalyst; Hold Core Positions
Comparability: ReviewWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 4/4League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
e43bf85bbb...13b3bb38
Prompt Hash
e02b072eac...68154035
Candidate Hash
a8a34c01af...644029d2
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Selective Deploy into ORCL Pre-Earnings Dislocation; Initiate MA on Stablecoin Catalyst; Hold Core Positions
quality score 1.00
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Initiating a tactical 8% position in Oracle (ORCL) ahead of earnings, capitalizing on contrarian signals despite recent negative news.
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Historical decision generation failed.
Dislocation Hunter
Opus 4.5 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.
Mismatch detected across hashes or model coverage. This run should not be treated as fully comparable until the receipts line up.
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Selective Deploy into ORCL Pre-Earnings Dislocation; Initiate MA on Stablecoin Catalyst; Hold Core Positions
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
60.0%
Return
+0.2%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$100,190
Cash
$68,432
Holdings
3
BRK-B
28
0.1% allocation
+3.1%
LLY
9
0.1% allocation
-1.8%
V
28
0.1% allocation
-0.7%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.