Historical Arena playback
Mar 2, 4:00 PM UTC to Mar 16, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deployment into ORCL and XOM; Maintain BRK-B and LLY — Reducing 75.7% Cash Drag Against SPY Benchmark
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy Into XOM; Hold BRK-B at Cap and LLY; Preserve ~60%+ Cash Amid Absent Analyst Coverage
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate ORCL & XOM to Reduce Cash Drag; Hold BRK-B & LLY Within Mandate
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deployment: Buy XOM + V to Reduce Benchmark Drag; Hold BRK-B & LLY; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Risk
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Maintain defensive posture with 71% cash; hold BRK-B, LLY, XOM while awaiting higher-conviction signals
Continue holding quality positions; preserve 71% cash for deployment when conviction improves
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective deployment into ORCL and XOM; hold BRK-B at cap and LLY; reduce cash drag from 75.7%
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deployment Into XOM and V; Hold BRK-B and LLY; Exclude ORCL on Litigation/Earnings Risk
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate ORCL and XOM; Hold BRK-B at Cap; Hold LLY — Reduce 75% Cash Drag Against Normal Signal Regime
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective deployment into ORCL and XOM; trim BRK-B to cap; hold LLY pending recovery
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Filled plan: Buy XOM (66)
Selective XOM deployment to diversify concentrated cash position; hold BRK-B and LLY
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective deployment into XOM and V to reduce ~75% cash drag while avoiding ORCL (litigation + earnings binary), maintaining BRK-B at cap, and holding LLY. Conv…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selectively deploy excess cash into ORCL (pre-earnings reversal, top shortlist score, Jefferies constructive post-60% drawdown) and MA (stablecoin settlement ca…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selectively deploy excess cash (~75.7%) into ORCL as a pre-earnings mean-reversion position at below-max sizing (~10% target), exploiting a 50-60% drawdown from…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Maintain core holdings; defer ORCL deployment pending earnings clarity and litigation resolution
Continue defensive positioning; defer ORCL entry until post-earnings clarity
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deployment into JNJ and V; Hold BRK-B and LLY; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Add V & JNJ at Modest Weights; Hold BRK-B/LLY; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy into JNJ and V; Hold BRK-B and LLY Through Minimum Holding Period; ORCL Avoided on Active Litigation
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate V; Hold BRK-B & LLY; Avoid ORCL on Securities Litigation Risk
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate V; Hold BRK-B & LLY Through Min-Hold; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Hold BRK-B & LLY; initiate V on Pismo leadership catalyst; avoid ORCL on securities litigation overhang
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate V, Hold BRK-B & LLY, Defer ORCL — Cash Reduction from 75.7% Extreme While Respecting Min-Hold Constraints
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy: Initiate V and JNJ; Hold BRK-B and LLY; Exclude ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.4% > 15.0%)
Selective Deploy into Visa (V); Hold BRK-B and LLY; Avoid ORCL and JNJ on Legal Overhangs
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.1% > 15.0%)
Selectively deploy cash into ORCL at a reduced 8% allocation given highest shortlist score (40.28) and ytd-trend factor, while capping size well below the 15% c…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Guardrails blocked: Position size too large for BRK-B (15.1% > 15.0%)
The portfolio is materially under-invested (~75.9% cash). The highest-conviction deployment opportunity is ORCL (top shortlist score, positive multi-factor mome…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (31); Buy LLY (9)
Selective Initial Deployment: BRK-B Anchor, XOM Secondary, LLY Speculative; ORCL Deferred on Legal Risk
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (20); Buy LLY (9)
Initiate selective deployment: BRK-B and LLY at 10% each; hold 80% cash pending ORCL/XOM clarity
Selective Deployment into ORCL, V, and JNJ; XOM and BRK-A Sidelined on Headline Risk
Selectively deploy from 100% cash into a 3-name large-cap book (ORCL at reduced weight due to litigation, V as clean compounder, JNJ as defensive ballast) while…
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Evidence Referee · Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.