Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-0.0%
$99,953
Runs
15
Fills
4
Parse fails
1
Blocks
6
Historical Arena playback
Mar 3, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe25max trades3tool calls0createdMar 8, 10:53 AM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.5%
$99,457
Runs
15
Fills
4
Parse fails
1
Blocks
8
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
+0.0%
$100,000
Runs
15
Fills
4
Parse fails
0
Blocks
7
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$60,834
60.8% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: +$0Cash: $60,834
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $150,775
Cautious Hold With Tactical ORCL Entry Considered; Existing Positions Maintained Amid Mixed Signals
Buy 59 shares of ORCL at ~$152.93 = ~$9,023 (~5% of NAV). Top candidate by score (37.08); Jefferies bullish post-50% decline; technical reversal signals; Q3 ear…
HeldORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,855
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldORCLJPMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $160,834
Add high-quality payment networks while maintaining diversified defensive core and ample cash.
Use part of excess cash to initiate MA given favorable candidate score and strategic network-expansion news.
HeldMAJPM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $150,775
Hold Core Positions; Initiate ORCL on Pre-Earnings Dip & Add MA on Payments Tailwind
Buy 46 shares of ORCL at ~$152.93 ≈ $7,035 notional per 10 shares; 46 shares ≈ $7,035... corrected: 46 × $152.93 ≈ $7,035 × 1 = ~$7,035. Full position: 46 share…
HeldORCLMA
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,855
Initiating Energy Position in XOM; Downgrading ORCL Outlook on Negative News
Deploying cash to initiate a position in a strong energy sector candidate, XOM, based on positive macro trends and supportive news.
HeldXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $160,834
Maintain current core holdings and redeploy a small portion of excess cash into MA for payments exposure diversification.
Buy 25 shares (~$13.1k) to establish a starter position without compromising cash reserves or concentration limits.
HeldMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $150,775
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for V (0d < 3d)
FDA approval of TECVAYLI+DARZALEX FASPRO for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma is a near-term positive catalyst. Add 10 shares at ~$240.48 (~$2,405 outlay). …
JNJ
$150,775
▼ Sold
SoldJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,855
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Liquidating the entire position in Oracle to eliminate exposure to increasing operational and legal risks.
HeldORCLJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $160,834
Hold core positions and keep elevated cash; no trade clears evidence threshold versus constraints.
Positive Berkshire capital allocation news supports maintaining the position.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $150,775
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for V (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for JNJ (0d < 3d)
Add 10 shares of JNJ at ~$240.48 (~$2,405). FDA approval of TECVAYLI+DARZALEX combo for multiple myeloma is a concrete commercial catalyst. Post-add position ~6…
JNJ
$150,775
▼ Sold
SoldJNJBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,855
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Exiting position entirely due to severe negative catalysts including job cuts and lawsuits, which represent an unacceptable level of risk.
HeldORCLTSMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $160,834
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into JNJ while avoiding ORCL event risk.
Initiate a moderate position in JNJ using excess cash; 40 shares costs about 9,619.20 and adds diversification with positive regulatory momentum.
JNJ
$160,834
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $160,834
Simulated fill: BUY JNJ
Initiate a moderate position in JNJ using excess cash; 40 shares costs about 9,619.20 and adds diversification with positive regulatory momentum.
JNJ
$160,834
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $150,775
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldJNJXOMBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,855
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Liquidating the entire position to mitigate risks highlighted by recent news about massive job cuts and multiple securities class-action lawsuits.
HeldORCLJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $170,212
Initiate a concentrated three-position portfolio in BRK-B, V, and XOM while preserving 55% cash due to limited fundamental depth and mixed news backdrop.
Buy 20 shares (~$9,974) to initiate a core diversified quality position while keeping overall turnover within budget.
BRK-B
$170,212
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,212
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY V, BUY XOM
Buy 20 shares (~$9,974) to initiate a core diversified quality position while keeping overall turnover within budget.
BRK-B
$170,212
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $150,822
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for JNJ (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for V (0d < 3d); Min holding…
Add 10 shares (~$5,001) to BRK-B. New CEO Greg Abel is restarting buybacks and buying shares personally — a high-conviction shareholder alignment signal. Operat…
BRK-B
$150,822
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Initiating a new 10% target position in Visa to deploy a portion of the portfolio's large cash holding into a quality asset.
HeldV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy approximately $14.5k to establish a core diversified quality position near the max single-name cap without exceeding it.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $150,822
Steady Blue-Chip Core; Add BRK-B & V on Momentum, Hold JNJ/XOM Pending News Resolution
Add 3 shares of BRK-B @ ~$500.08 (~$1,500 outlay). Greg Abel personally buying and restarting buybacks is a strong insider-alignment signal. Brings position fro…
BRK-B
$150,822
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $150,822
Simulated fill: BUY V
Add 3 shares of BRK-B @ ~$500.08 (~$1,500 outlay). Greg Abel personally buying and restarting buybacks is a strong insider-alignment signal. Brings position fro…
BRK-B
$150,822
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Deploying approximately 9% of portfolio capital from cash to establish a new core position in TSM for diversification and exposure to the semiconductor industry…
TSM
$161,175
▲ Bought
BoughtTSM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy 29 shares (~$14.5k) to establish a core defensive position near the max single-name allocation.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BXOMV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,650
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for JNJ (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for XOM (0d < 3d)
Add 27 shares (~$13,502) to double BRK-B holding to 54 shares. CEO Abel's personal share purchases and buyback restart are strong conviction signals. Candidate …
HeldBRK-BV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Initiating a new position in XOM to add energy sector diversification and deploy excess cash.
XOM
$161,175
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy 29 shares (~$14.5k) to establish a full starter weight in the most attractive Berkshire line for this capital base.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BVTSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,650
BRK-B Buyback Catalyst + JNJ FDA Win Justify Holds; Initiate XOM on Energy Momentum
Initiate XOM position: 66 shares × $150.76 ≈ $9,950 (~10% of $100K NAV). Energy momentum positive; oil surging on Iran attack; XOM leads energy rally. Candidate…
XOM
$162,650
▲ Bought
BoughtXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $162,650
Simulated fill: BUY XOM
Initiate XOM position: 66 shares × $150.76 ≈ $9,950 (~10% of $100K NAV). Energy momentum positive; oil surging on Iran attack; XOM leads energy rally. Candidate…
XOM
$162,650
▲ Bought
BoughtXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Initiating a position to capitalize on a significant positive catalyst (FDA approval for a new drug) following a recent price dip, which offers an attractive en…
JNJ
$161,175
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJXOMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy approximately $14.5k to establish a core quality position near the 15% target while keeping flexibility for future cycles.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BXOMV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,600
Guardrails blocked: Min holding period not met for JNJ (0d < 3d)
Add 11 shares of BRK-B (~$5,501) to increase allocation from ~7.4% to ~13% of NAV. CEO buyback restart and personal share purchases signal management's convicti…
HeldBRK-BXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Deploying Cash: Initiating Positions in ORCL and BRK-B on Strategic Catalysts
Buying to establish a new core position based on the company's aggressive and potentially lucrative shift in strategy towards AI infrastructure.
ORCL
$161,175
▲ Bought
BoughtORCLBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,175
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL
Buying to establish a new core position based on the company's aggressive and potentially lucrative shift in strategy towards AI infrastructure.
ORCL
$161,175
▲ Bought
BoughtORCLBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy 30 shares (~$15.0k) to establish a core diversified quality position within max position limits.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BXOMV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,600
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY JNJ
28 shares × $500.08 ≈ $14,002 (~14.0% of $100K). CEO buyback restart and personal share purchases are high-conviction bullish signals. Strong 1d momentum. Prefe…
BRK-B
$172,600
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJNJXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,600
Fresh Portfolio Deployment: Initiating Positions in BRK-B, JNJ, and XOM on Positive Catalysts; Avoiding ORCL on Legal/Layoff Headwinds
28 shares × $500.08 ≈ $14,002 (~14.0% of $100K). CEO buyback restart and personal share purchases are high-conviction bullish signals. Strong 1d momentum. Prefe…
BRK-B
$172,600
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJNJXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,430
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiating a core position in Berkshire Hathaway to add stability and quality to the portfolio.
BRK-B
$180,430
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJNJV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy 29 shares (~$14.5k) to establish a full starter position near max position size in the most diversified candidate with supportive corporate actions.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BXOMV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Fresh Deploy: Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Portfolio from 100% Cash
Buy 42 shares of TSM @ $357.54 = ~$15,017 (~15% of $100K NAV). Top-ranked candidate by composite score. Semiconductor/AI leader with positive 1d momentum.
HeldTSMBRK-BORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,597
Deploying Cash: Initiating Position in Top-Ranked TSM to Reduce Cash Drag
Buying 22 shares of top-ranked TSM to initiate a new position and reduce the portfolio's high cash balance.
HeldTSM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a conservative 3-position starter portfolio with high-quality large caps while preserving 55% cash due to sparse data.
Buy approximately $14.7k to establish a capped starter position in the top-ranked semiconductor candidate.
HeldTSMBRK-BORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Fresh Portfolio Deployment: Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Positions Across 3 Top-Scored Candidates
42 shares × $357.54 = ~$15,017 (~15.0% of $100K portfolio). Top-scored candidate on market-cap + 1d momentum. Initiating full target position.
HeldTSMBRK-BORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,597
Deploying Cash: Initiating Positions in TSM and V for Diversification
Buy 28 shares to establish a ~10% position in the top-ranked candidate, TSM, for sector diversification and capital deployment.
HeldTSMV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a concentrated 3-position starter portfolio while preserving 55% cash due to sparse data.
Initiate first tranche in top-ranked candidate; 41 shares deploy about $14.66k and fit within both position and staged-turnover limits.
HeldTSMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (41.2% > 30.0%)
Top-ranked candidate. Buy 46 shares at $300.26 ≈ $13,812 (~13.8% of $100K portfolio). Positive 1d momentum, largest US bank by market cap.
JPM
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtJPMMAV
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,654
Initiating a core portfolio with top-ranked financials (JPM, MA) and diversified exposure (BRK-B).
Buying to establish a core position based on top candidate ranking.
JPM
$180,654
▲ Bought
BoughtJPMMABRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,654
Simulated fills: BUY MA, BUY JPM
Buying to establish a core position based on top candidate ranking.
JPM
$180,654
▲ Bought
BoughtJPMMABRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.2% > 30.0%)
Buy approximately $14.7k to establish a capped starter position in the highest-scoring candidate.
JPM
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtJPMMAV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Fresh Deployment: Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Portfolio Anchored by Momentum Leaders
Buy 97 shares of XOM at $154.22 ≈ $14,959 (14.96% of $100K portfolio). Top momentum candidate with positive 1d and YTD trend in resilient energy sector. No adve…
HeldXOMJNJMA
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Portfolio with Diversified Momentum Leaders in Energy, Healthcare, and Tech
Initiating a 10% target position in XOM, the top-ranked candidate, to capture its positive momentum.
HeldXOMJNJV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a diversified, low-turnover starter portfolio with 55% deployment across top-ranked liquid names while preserving 45% cash due sparse fundamentals/news.
Initiate maximum-sized position in highest-ranked name with strongest relative trend.
HeldXOMORCLJNJ
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Cautious Hold With Tactical ORCL Entry Considered; Existing Positions Maintained Amid Mixed Signals
Comparability: VerifiedWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
9de8165bdc...2ec4a3dd
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
a8a34c01af...644029d2
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Cautious Hold With Tactical ORCL Entry Considered; Existing Positions Maintained Amid Mixed Signals
quality score 1.00
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Add high-quality payment networks while maintaining diversified defensive core and ample cash.
quality score 1.00
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Cautious Hold With Tactical ORCL Entry Considered; Existing Positions Maintained Amid Mixed Signals
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
62.0%
Return
-0.0%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$99,953
Cash
$50,822
Holdings
4
JNJ
58
0.1% allocation
+0.4%
BRK-B
27
0.1% allocation
-0.3%
V
37
0.1% allocation
-0.7%
XOM
66
0.1% allocation
+0.3%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.