Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-0.2%
$99,775
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
4
Blocks
3
Historical Arena playback
Mar 5, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe50max trades3tool calls0createdMar 7, 6:35 PM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.2%
$99,847
Runs
10
Fills
3
Parse fails
4
Blocks
2
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
-0.2%
$99,757
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
0
Blocks
4
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$64,072
64.2% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: -$153Cash: $64,072
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $146,186
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,919
Diversifying into Healthcare with High-Momentum LLY
Initiating a new position in top-ranked candidate LLY to improve portfolio diversification and deploy excess cash.
HeldLLY
GPT 5.4▼ $153,718
Initiate two high-ranked defensive additions while keeping ample cash and staying within turnover limits.
Initiate a moderate position from excess cash in the top-ranked candidate with positive 1-day momentum.
HeldLLYJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $153,718
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Buy 64 shares (~$15.4k) to establish a diversified defensive position while keeping cash elevated.
JNJ
$153,718
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJLLY
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $146,186
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,919
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $146,186
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Highest candidate score (24.62); positive 1d momentum (+0.68%); large-cap pharma quality; initiating 10 shares at ~$9,899 cost. Portfolio cash remains well abov…
HeldLLYJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,919
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $153,718
Maintain current portfolio and keep elevated cash until stronger evidence emerges.
Maintain existing position; evidence set does not support trading.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $146,186
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMORCLBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,919
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
New position in top-ranked candidate LLY to diversify into healthcare and deploy cash.
LLY
$163,919
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $153,718
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Buy 18 shares (~$4.33k) to establish an initial ~4.5% position, balancing diversification benefit against limited supporting data.
JNJ
$153,718
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $146,411
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,072
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Initiating a position in a top-ranked semiconductor company to deploy cash and increase tech exposure.
TSM
$164,072
▲ Bought
BoughtTSMLLYJPM
GPT 5.4▲ $153,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate a moderate position in a top-ranked large-cap semiconductor name using part of excess cash while preserving flexibility under sparse-information condit…
TSM
$153,960
▲ Bought
BoughtTSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $146,411
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d)
Initiate TSM at ~60 shares (~$21,235 at $353.91). Highest-scoring unowned candidate driven by market-cap quality and AI semiconductor demand. Slight 1d pullback…
HeldTSM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,072
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
GPT 5.4▲ $153,960
Maintain current core holdings and hold elevated cash pending stronger multi-factor evidence.
Strong candidate rank and price action, with no contrary information requiring change.
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $146,411
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d)
35 shares at $353.91 = ~$12,387 deployed; initiates ~7.2% position in top-6 large-cap candidate. Minor 1d pullback (-0.99%) provides slightly better entry vs pr…
HeldTSM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,072
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
GPT 5.4▲ $153,960
Add two new high-score names while keeping cash above minimum and existing winners intact
Initiate diversified energy exposure in a high-ranked candidate with positive daily momentum, sized to fit turnover and cash constraints.
XOM
$153,960
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
GPT 5.4▲ $153,960
Simulated fills: BUY MA, BUY XOM
Initiate diversified energy exposure in a high-ranked candidate with positive daily momentum, sized to fit turnover and cash constraints.
XOM
$153,960
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $146,411
Maintain core holdings; initiate XOM and MA positions to diversify into energy and payments
90 shares × $150.76 = ~$13,568 (~13.6% of portfolio). XOM scores 24.22 on market-cap and 1d-momentum; positive day return; energy sector diversifies away from f…
XOM
$146,411
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $146,411
Simulated fills: BUY XOM, BUY MA
90 shares × $150.76 = ~$13,568 (~13.6% of portfolio). XOM scores 24.22 on market-cap and 1d-momentum; positive day return; energy sector diversifies away from f…
XOM
$146,411
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,072
Deploying Cash: Initiating Position in Berkshire Hathaway to Reduce Cash Drag
Initiating a new 10% position in a top-ranked, high-quality large-cap company (BRK-B) to deploy excess cash and reduce portfolio cash drag. The company shows st…
BRK-B
$164,072
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,072
Simulated fill: BUY BRK-B
Initiating a new 10% position in a top-ranked, high-quality large-cap company (BRK-B) to deploy excess cash and reduce portfolio cash drag. The company shows st…
BRK-B
$164,072
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $170,635
Initiate a conservative 3-name starter portfolio with Berkshire, Oracle, and Exxon while preserving 55% cash due to limited fundamental/news depth.
Buy 29 shares (~$14.5k) to establish diversified core exposure while staying under the 15% max position limit.
BRK-B
$170,635
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCL
GPT 5.4▲ $170,635
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL
Buy 29 shares (~$14.5k) to establish diversified core exposure while staying under the 15% max position limit.
BRK-B
$170,635
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,564
Portfolio Initialization: Deploying Capital into High-Quality Large-Caps with Positive Momentum
28 shares × $500.08 ≈ $14,002 (~14% of $100k portfolio). Top momentum/market-cap candidate. Accessible price. Initiating core value position.
BRK-B
$172,564
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,564
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL
28 shares × $500.08 ≈ $14,002 (~14% of $100k portfolio). Top momentum/market-cap candidate. Accessible price. Initiating core value position.
BRK-B
$172,564
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $173,573
Initiating a Diversified Portfolio of Market Leaders
Initiating a position in a top-ranked, high market-cap company showing positive momentum.
BRK-B
$173,573
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $173,573
Simulated fills: BUY XOM, BUY ORCL
Initiating a position in a top-ranked, high market-cap company showing positive momentum.
BRK-B
$173,573
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.1% > 30.0%)
Buy 30 shares for approximately $15,002 to establish a max-sized starter position in the highest-ranked executable candidate.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Initiating diversified large-cap portfolio across 8 positions from $100K cash base
Top-scored candidate by market-cap and 1d momentum signals. 36 shares × $357.54 ≈ $12,871 (~12.9% of $100K). Initiating core tech/semiconductor position.
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Portfolio with Top-Ranked Large-Cap Leaders
Establishing a core position in the leading semiconductor foundry, based on its top rank in the candidate list.
HeldTSMBRK-BLLY
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a diversified starter allocation in top-ranked liquid large caps while preserving high cash.
Buy approximately $9.65k to establish a 10% starter position in the top-ranked candidate while staying within turnover budget.
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.
Comparability: ReviewWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
52f93b93e0...45603414
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
4f53cda18c...1202b945
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Historical decision generation failed.
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Diversifying into Healthcare with High-Momentum LLY
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Initiate two high-ranked defensive additions while keeping ample cash and staying within turnover limits.
quality score 1.00
Mismatch detected across hashes or model coverage. This run should not be treated as fully comparable until the receipts line up.
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Historical decision generation failed.
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
0.0%
Return
-0.2%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$99,775
Cash
$46,411
Holdings
4
ORCL
90
0.1% allocation
-1.2%
XOM
90
0.1% allocation
+0.3%
BRK-B
27
0.1% allocation
-0.3%
MA
24
0.1% allocation
-0.4%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.