Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-0.1%
$99,860
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
7
Blocks
0
Historical Arena playback
Mar 1, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe12max trades3tool calls0createdMar 7, 6:46 PM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.5%
$99,457
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
1
Blocks
4
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
-0.1%
$99,878
Runs
10
Fills
3
Parse fails
0
Blocks
5
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$70,640
70.7% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: -$122Cash: $70,640
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $154,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMMAORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,338
Deploying Cash: Initiating LLY, Adding to XOM, Selling TSM
Selling entire position due to being the lowest ranked candidate and exhibiting significant negative 1-day momentum.
HeldTSMLLYXOM
GPT 5.4▼ $170,518
Maintain current holdings and add broad quality exposure via JNJ while preserving high cash buffer.
Buy 20 shares to start a controlled position using only a small portion of excess cash, improving diversification while respecting all portfolio limits.
HeldJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $154,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMMAORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,338
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for TSM (0d < 3d)
Deploying cash into the top-ranked candidate with strong positive momentum.
HeldLLYJNJTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $170,518
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Starter position sized to roughly 11.0% of portfolio, aligned with top candidate rank and positive 1-day momentum.
LLY
$170,518
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $154,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMMAORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,338
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for TSM (0d < 3d)
Selling entire TSM position due to significant 1-day price drop (-4.24%) and its low ranking on the candidate list.
HeldTSMLLYBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $170,518
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Buy 10 shares to establish a meaningful but still sub-limit position in the highest-ranked candidate with positive 1-day momentum.
LLY
$170,518
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $154,856
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldXOMMAORCL
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $160,338
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Initiating a position in the top-ranked candidate based on market cap and positive 1-day momentum to deploy excess cash.
LLY
$160,338
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $170,518
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate 10 shares to establish exposure in the top-ranked candidate while keeping sizing prudent given limited supporting data.
LLY
$170,518
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $154,996
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $160,881
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Purchasing 19 shares to build a ~10% position in MA, deploying excess cash into a strong candidate.
MA
$160,881
▲ Bought
BoughtMA
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Buy 25 shares to establish diversified payments exposure using excess cash while remaining below max position and turnover limits.
MA
$170,640
▲ Bought
BoughtMAV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $154,996
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $160,881
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Maintain current concentrated winners; no rebalance justified with sparse fundamentals/news and all holdings inside limits.
Hold because it is already a top candidate and there is insufficient new information to justify adding or trimming.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $160,881
Deploying Excess Cash into Top-Ranked Semiconductor Leader TSM
Initiating a position in the top-ranked candidate, TSM, to deploy a portion of the portfolio's significant cash holdings and gain exposure to the semiconductor …
TSM
$160,881
▲ Bought
BoughtTSM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $160,881
Simulated fill: BUY TSM
Initiating a position in the top-ranked candidate, TSM, to deploy a portion of the portfolio's significant cash holdings and gain exposure to the semiconductor …
TSM
$160,881
▲ Bought
BoughtTSM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Buy 23 shares (~12059.82) to establish a meaningful but sub-cap position in a high-ranked diversified financial compounder.
MA
$170,640
▲ Bought
BoughtMAV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $154,996
Hold existing positions; deploy cash into high-scoring candidates XOM and MA
99 shares × $150.76 ≈ $14,925. Initiating position in top-scored energy large-cap with positive 1d momentum to diversify portfolio and deploy excess cash. Stays…
XOM
$154,996
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $154,996
Simulated fills: BUY MA, BUY XOM
99 shares × $150.76 ≈ $14,925. Initiating position in top-scored energy large-cap with positive 1d momentum to diversify portfolio and deploy excess cash. Stays…
XOM
$154,996
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $184,603
Fresh portfolio initialization: deploying capital into top large-cap candidates with positive momentum
16 shares × $500.08 ≈ $8,001 (~8% of portfolio). Top accessible candidate by score with strong 1d momentum and large-cap defensive quality.
BRK-B
$184,603
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $184,603
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL
16 shares × $500.08 ≈ $8,001 (~8% of portfolio). Top accessible candidate by score with strong 1d momentum and large-cap defensive quality.
BRK-B
$184,603
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Deploying Cash into Momentum Leaders; Initiating Position in Oracle
Initiating a new position to deploy cash, gain technology sector exposure, and invest in a top-ranked momentum candidate.
ORCL
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtORCLBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Simulated fill: BUY ORCL
Initiating a new position to deploy cash, gain technology sector exposure, and invest in a top-ranked momentum candidate.
ORCL
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtORCLBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Deploy part of elevated cash into high-ranked quality large caps while keeping ample liquidity and existing winners intact
Add 8 shares to increase exposure to the highest-ranked existing holding while staying below max position size.
HeldBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,699
Initializing portfolio by deploying capital into top-ranked, large-cap market leaders.
Initiating a 10% target position in BRK-B as a core diversified holding, based on its top candidate score.
BRK-B
$180,699
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,699
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY XOM
Initiating a 10% target position in BRK-B as a core diversified holding, based on its top candidate score.
BRK-B
$180,699
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Initiate a cautious, diversified starter allocation using top-ranked liquid names while preserving high cash.
Buy approximately 10% allocation via 20 shares (~$10,001.60), selecting the highest-ranked practical Berkshire share class.
BRK-B
$170,640
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,640
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL, BUY XOM
Buy approximately 10% allocation via 20 shares (~$10,001.60), selecting the highest-ranked practical Berkshire share class.
BRK-B
$170,640
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Core Portfolio with Diversified Large-Cap Leaders
Initiate a ~10% position in TSM, the top-ranked candidate, to build a core holding in the technology sector.
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a diversified 3-name starter portfolio while preserving ample cash under all limits.
Buy approximately 11.8% starter position in the top-ranked candidate with positive momentum.
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Portfolio Initialization: Diversified Large-Cap Entry Across 3 Sectors
27 shares × $357.54 = $9,653.58 (~9.65% NAV). Top candidate score, positive momentum, $1.85T market cap leader. Conservative sizing at 10% given no fundamental …
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Arena could not certify the desk's decision before execution.
Comparability: ReviewWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
6d6e9f7363...c2ae1009
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
a2c66b4464...d2c69251
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecision
Historical decision generation failed.
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Deploying Cash: Initiating LLY, Adding to XOM, Selling TSM
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Maintain current holdings and add broad quality exposure via JNJ while preserving high cash buffer.
quality score 1.00
Mismatch detected across hashes or model coverage. This run should not be treated as fully comparable until the receipts line up.
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Historical decision generation failed.
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
0.0%
Return
-0.1%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$99,860
Cash
$54,996
Holdings
4
XOM
99
0.1% allocation
+0.3%
MA
28
0.1% allocation
-0.4%
ORCL
51
0.1% allocation
-1.2%
BRK-B
15
0.1% allocation
-0.3%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.