Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-0.6%
$99,386
Runs
14
Fills
8
Parse fails
0
Blocks
1
Historical Arena playback
Feb 19, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 12:00 AM UTC · NYSE · 41cc3226-5b94-4530-9222-873064cffe50, a4e57e6c-5379-49a6-9e8b-3812797dd6d0, f0e86173-df31-4cf2-a3c1-32cb7c076751
cash$100,000universe100max trades3tool calls0createdMar 8, 11:42 AM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.9%
$99,116
Runs
14
Fills
8
Parse fails
0
Blocks
2
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
-0.6%
$99,443
Runs
14
Fills
4
Parse fails
0
Blocks
4
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$64,044
64.4% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: -$557Cash: $64,044
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $178,598
Filled plan: Buy JNJ (14)
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst & Scout V for Entry
JNJ
$178,598
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $153,833
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Deploying Cash to Diversify into Semiconductors (TSM) and Energy (XOM)
XOM
$153,833
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $163,486
Filled plan: Buy V (21)
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into Visa while avoiding Oracle headline risk.
V
$163,486
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $181,953
Filled plan: Sell LLY (4)
Hold Core Positions, Add JNJ on FDA Catalyst; Avoid ORCL on Legal & Layoff Headwinds
LLY
$181,953
▼ Sold
SoldLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $153,833
Filled plan: Buy JNJ (22); Buy BRK-B (8)
Increasing Conviction in JNJ and BRK-B on Positive Catalysts
JNJ
$153,833
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $170,200
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate two high-quality additions with available cash while maintaining core holdings and preserving ample liquidity.
V
$170,200
▲ Bought
BoughtVXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $178,037
Selective Expansion Into TSM & V While Holding Core Positions; ORCL Avoided on Legal Risk
Maintain quality-value core (BRK-B, JNJ, JPM, LLY) and deploy excess cash into diversifying, large-cap positions with positive near-term catalysts — specificall…
HeldJNJLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,295
Deploying Cash: Initiating Position in TSM and Adding to V for Tech and Payments Exposure
Systematically deploy excess cash into high-conviction, market-leading companies in secular growth sectors like semiconductors (TSM) and digital payments (V) to…
HeldBRK-BJPMJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $170,122
Maintain concentrated defensive posture; add modestly to BRK-B and initiate V while preserving ample cash.
Use excess cash to incrementally build high-quality compounders with resilient business models, favoring BRK-B and V while avoiding names with adverse event ris…
HeldJNJJPMBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $178,037
Hold Core Positions, Initiate TSM; Avoid ORCL on Securities Litigation Risk
Maintain quality large-cap value and growth core (BRK-B, JNJ, JPM, LLY). Deploy excess cash selectively into TSM as a semiconductor bellwether with positive mom…
HeldJNJLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,295
Deploying Cash into High-Conviction Growth and Value Opportunities
The current market presents opportunities to selectively deploy capital into high-quality companies. We are initiating a position in a strong growth name (LLY) …
HeldBRK-BJPMJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $170,122
Deploy part of excess cash into high-quality compounders V and TSM while maintaining core holdings.
Begin scaling excess cash into diversified mega-cap quality names V and TSM while keeping BRK-B, JNJ, and JPM as core holds; avoid ORCL due to litigation/outage…
HeldJNJJPMBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $177,986
Filled plan: Sell JNJ (32); Sell JPM (25)
Hold Core Positions; Avoid ORCL on Legal Overhang, Monitor BRK-B Leadership Transition
JNJ
$177,986
▼ Sold
SoldJNJJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,304
Filled plan: Sell TSM (25); Buy BRK-B (16)
De-risking from Tech into Defensive Value Amid Geopolitical Tensions
HeldTSMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $170,017
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Maintain defensive quality tilt; deploy a modest slice of excess cash into Visa while holding existing positions.
V
$170,017
▲ Bought
BoughtVJPM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $162,643
Selective Add to XOM on Energy Tailwind; Hold Core Positions Amid Broad Market Weakness
Hold quality large-cap value positions (BRK-B, JNJ, JPM, LLY) through near-term volatility; tactically add XOM to capture energy/geopolitical tailwind while avo…
HeldJNJLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $162,569
Deploying Cash into Energy and Healthcare on Favorable Catalysts
The portfolio is currently under-invested. The primary objective is to deploy excess cash into high-conviction ideas driven by clear, near-term catalysts. The c…
HeldJNJVTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $169,932
Use excess cash to add a defensive energy hedge via XOM while maintaining current core holdings.
Maintain core quality holdings and selectively deploy excess cash into energy exposure through XOM as a macro hedge and momentum-supported diversifier.
HeldJNJJPMBRK-B
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $163,472
Hold Core Positions; Initiate V on Acquisition Catalyst, Avoid ORCL on Litigation Overhang
Concentrate in high-quality large-caps with identifiable near-term catalysts (LLY GLP-1 pipeline, V payments expansion) while maintaining defensive ballast in B…
HeldLLYBRK-BJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $162,760
Deploying Cash into High-Conviction Healthcare and Energy Names
Actively deploying excess cash into high-conviction opportunities with strong secular tailwinds, specifically targeting healthcare innovation (LLY) and energy s…
HeldJPMJNJTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $170,736
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into high-quality growth/quality names LLY and V.
Use excess cash to gradually broaden the portfolio into high-quality large-cap compounders with supportive recent news and manageable momentum, while avoiding n…
HeldJNJBRK-BJPM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $163,148
Filled plan: Buy LLY (9)
Hold Core Positions; Avoid ORCL on Securities Fraud Litigation Wave; Monitor JNJ Catalysts
LLY
$163,148
▲ Bought
BoughtLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $162,663
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Deploying Cash: Increasing JNJ on Positive Pipeline News and Initiating LLY on GLP-1 Drug Success
LLY
$162,663
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $170,757
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (29); Buy JPM (32); Buy JNJ (20)
Initiate a conservative 3-name starter portfolio, avoiding ORCL despite top candidate score due to concentrated litigation headline risk.
BRK-B
$170,757
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJPMJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $172,169
Initiate TSM position; hold core quality names; avoid ORCL on litigation overhang
Run a concentrated, high-quality large-cap portfolio anchored in value (BRK-B), healthcare (JNJ), financials (JPM), and emerging-technology (TSM). Deploy cash s…
HeldBRK-BJNJJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $162,815
Deploying Cash into Financials and AI Tech on Strong Momentum
Positive news flow and strong price momentum in financials (JPM, MA) and AI-related semiconductors (TSM) provide a clear signal to deploy the portfolio's signif…
HeldJPMTSMV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a concentrated but diversified 3-name starter portfolio in JPM, TSM, and JNJ while preserving 55% cash.
Start with high-quality large-cap exposure in JPM, TSM, and JNJ; avoid ORCL litigation overhang and defer higher-volatility or lower-conviction names until bett…
HeldJPMTSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $172,041
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Rotate into TSM on AI Momentum; Hold JNJ & BRK-B; Trim JPM on Credit Cycle Caution
HeldTSMJPMJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $162,475
Filled plan: Buy TSM (25); Buy JPM (26)
Deploying Cash into AI and Financials; Initiating TSM and JPM Positions
TSM
$162,475
▲ Bought
BoughtTSMJPM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.3% > 30.0%)
Initiate a concentrated 3-name starter portfolio in TSM, JPM, and JNJ while preserving 55% cash due sparse fundamentals and mixed news quality.
JNJ
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJJPMTSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $172,028
Trim JPM on Credit/Macro Fears, Initiate LLY on GLP-1 Momentum, Hold BRK-B & JNJ
Rotate modest capital from financially stressed JPM into high-momentum secular growth plays (LLY, TSM) while maintaining defensive anchors (BRK-B, JNJ). Macro e…
HeldJNJBRK-BJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $179,809
Repositioning Portfolio: Selling V on Regulatory Headwinds, Buying LLY and TSM on Strong Sector Tailwinds
Actively reposition capital from holdings facing specific headwinds (V) into high-conviction secular growth themes, namely AI infrastructure (TSM) and innovativ…
HeldJNJV
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a concentrated, low-turnover starter portfolio in TSM, LLY, and XOM while retaining 55% cash.
Build an initial barbell of secular growth and defensives with limited position sizes and elevated cash because the dataset shows strong thematic support for TS…
HeldTSMLLY
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $172,368
Initiate V Position; Hold Existing Core; Avoid ORCL on Litigation Flood
Build a diversified large-cap quality portfolio anchored in financial services, healthcare, and consumer-staple conglomerates. Add best-ranked candidates on dip…
HeldJPMBRK-BJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $180,123
Deploying Cash into Healthcare and Tech Leaders Amidst Positive Catalysts
Selectively deploy capital into high-quality companies with positive, stock-specific catalysts, particularly in the healthcare (LLY) and semiconductor (TSM) sec…
HeldVJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a concentrated, high-quality large-cap basket with 55% invested and 45% cash, avoiding Oracle litigation overhang and unbuyable BRK-A.
Start a conservative initial portfolio using diversified mega-cap compounders and positive near-term momentum, while excluding names with concentrated legal hea…
HeldBRK
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,431
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (18); Buy JNJ (38); Buy JPM (30)
Fresh Portfolio Deployment: Diversified Large-Cap Initiation With ORCL Sidelined on Litigation Risk
BRK-B
$172,431
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJNJJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $180,237
Filled plan: Buy V (31); Buy JNJ (40)
Initiating a diversified portfolio with buys in JNJ, V, and TSM, driven by positive news and secular trends, while avoiding ORCL due to significant legal risks.
V
$180,237
▲ Bought
BoughtVJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.7% > 30.0%)
Initiate a concentrated, high-quality starter portfolio with 3 positions while preserving 55% cash due limited fundamental depth and mixed news.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJNJV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Fresh Portfolio Deployment: Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Positions Across Tech, Finance, Energy & Healthcare
Build a diversified large-cap portfolio from cash, favoring positive 1-day and YTD momentum names with strong news coverage. Avoid ORCL due to active securities…
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Portfolio with Conviction in Tech, Financials, and Energy
The current market presents opportunities to build a diversified portfolio. The core thesis is to invest in market leaders with strong secular growth drivers. W…
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a diversified 3-name starter portfolio while preserving 55% cash due sparse fundamentals and mixed news quality.
Begin a conservative, high-quality large-cap portfolio centered on payments, banking, and semiconductor leadership, while avoiding names with legal-event noise …
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Filled plan: Buy JNJ (14)
Comparability: VerifiedWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
3eb6370190...ea2ba80f
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
1f64e382df...7809be36
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 6, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 6, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst & Scout V for Entry
quality score 1.00
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Deploying Cash to Diversify into Semiconductors (TSM) and Energy (XOM)
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into Visa while avoiding Oracle headline risk.
quality score 1.00
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 6, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst & Scout V for Entry
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
67.0%
Return
-0.6%
Orders
Buy JNJ
market · qty 14
$239.61
claude-sonnet-4-6:JNJ:buy
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$99,386
Cash
$79,212
Holdings
4
BRK-B
18
0.1% allocation
+0.6%
LLY
5
0.0% allocation
-3.8%
JNJ
20
0.0% allocation
-0.9%
JPM
5
0.0% allocation
-4.7%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.