Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-0.2%
$99,761
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
1
Blocks
5
Historical Arena playback
Mar 5, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe12max trades3tool calls0createdMar 7, 7:45 PM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-0.1%
$99,878
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
0
Blocks
6
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
-0.1%
$99,851
Runs
10
Fills
4
Parse fails
0
Blocks
6
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$61,881
61.9% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: -$122Cash: $61,881
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $148,228
Hold Core Positions, Initiate LLY on Top Candidate Score — Minimal Turnover in Data-Sparse Environment
Initiate LLY at ~10 shares ($9,899). Highest composite candidate score (24.62), positive 1d momentum (+0.68%), mega-cap quality ($934B). Conservative starter si…
HeldLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,759
Deploying Cash: Increasing LLY Conviction and Initiating JNJ Position
Adding to top-ranked candidate LLY to increase exposure to its positive momentum.
HeldLLYJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $160,846
Initiate two high-quality large-cap positions while keeping ample cash and existing holdings intact.
Initiate moderate position using excess cash in top-ranked candidate; 9 shares is about 10.9% of portfolio and leaves room to add later.
HeldLLYV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $148,228
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d)
Top candidate score 24.62 with positive 1d momentum +0.68%. 17 shares @ $989.92 ≈ $16,829 (~9.4% NAV). Adds healthcare diversification and deploys excess cash p…
HeldLLYJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,759
Deploying Cash into Healthcare Momentum Leader LLY for Diversification
Buying 10 shares to establish a new position of approximately 10%, deploying cash into the top-ranked candidate.
LLY
$161,759
▲ Bought
BoughtLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $161,759
Simulated fill: BUY LLY
Buying 10 shares to establish a new position of approximately 10%, deploying cash into the top-ranked candidate.
LLY
$161,759
▲ Bought
BoughtLLY
GPT 5.4▼ $160,846
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into high-ranked defensive healthcare via JNJ.
Buy 40 shares (~$9.6k) to start a diversified defensive position sized well within all limits and turnover budget.
JNJ
$160,846
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $160,846
Simulated fill: BUY JNJ
Buy 40 shares (~$9.6k) to start a diversified defensive position sized well within all limits and turnover budget.
JNJ
$160,846
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $148,228
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d)
Buy 10 shares of LLY at ~$989.92 (~$9,899 total). Top-ranked unowned candidate by composite score (market-cap + positive 1d momentum). Adds healthcare sector di…
HeldLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $170,668
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Initiating a position in the top-ranked candidate LLY to gain exposure to the high-growth healthcare sector and deploy idle cash.
LLY
$170,668
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJV
GPT 5.4▼ $170,465
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate a measured position in the top-ranked candidate using excess cash while keeping position size below the max limit.
LLY
$170,465
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $148,228
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d); Min hol…
42 shares × $989.92 ≈ $41,577 — wait, sizing to ~5.8% of $246,095 NAV = ~$14,274; use 14 shares × $989.92 ≈ $13,859 (~5.6% NAV). Top candidate score, positive m…
LLY
$148,228
▼ Sold
SoldLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $170,668
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiating a new position in the top-ranked candidate to gain exposure to the healthcare sector and reduce cash drag.
LLY
$170,668
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJXOM
GPT 5.4▼ $170,465
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate a full-sized but compliant position in the top-ranked candidate using part of excess cash.
LLY
$170,465
▲ Bought
BoughtLLYJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $148,468
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d)
TSM is the largest-cap name in the universe not currently held. At $353.91/share, 55 shares = ~$19,465, bringing TSM to ~9% of NAV. Adds semiconductor/AI infras…
HeldTSM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiating a 9.9% position in TSM to deploy cash into a high-momentum leader in the semiconductor space.
TSM
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtTSMMAORCL
GPT 5.4▲ $170,614
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate meaningful but sub-limit position in a liquid mega-cap compounder using excess cash.
MA
$170,614
▲ Bought
BoughtMATSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $148,468
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for ORCL (0d < 3d); Min holding period not met for BRK-B (0d < 3d)
30 shares × $353.91 = ~$10,617. Adds semiconductor exposure; highest-scoring unowned candidate on market-cap and momentum screens. Slight 1d dip (-0.99%) provid…
TSM
$148,468
▼ Sold
SoldTSM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiating a ~10% position in MA to deploy cash into a strong candidate, diversifying the portfolio.
MA
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtMATSM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,614
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Initiate moderate position in a top-ranked large-cap candidate while portfolio cash is elevated.
MA
$170,614
▲ Bought
BoughtMATSM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $148,468
Deploying Cash into BRK-B, XOM & MA — Diversifying Concentrated 2-Stock Portfolio
Buy 75 shares of XOM at ~$150.76 (~$11,307 outlay, ~11.3% of NAV). Top-4 candidate by score with positive 1d momentum and $628B market cap. Adds energy sector e…
XOM
$148,468
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $148,468
Simulated fills: BUY MA, BUY XOM
Buy 75 shares of XOM at ~$150.76 (~$11,307 outlay, ~11.3% of NAV). Top-4 candidate by score with positive 1d momentum and $628B market cap. Adds energy sector e…
XOM
$148,468
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMMA
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Establishing a new core position in a top-ranked semiconductor leader to deploy cash and improve diversification.
TSM
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtTSMMAORCL
GPT 5.4▲ $170,614
Initiate a concentrated three-position starter portfolio with defensive quality and positive short-term relative strength.
Buy approximately $14.5k to establish a 15% position in the strongest investable candidate while staying within the single-name cap.
BRK-B
$170,614
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $170,614
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL, BUY XOM
Buy approximately $14.5k to establish a 15% position in the strongest investable candidate while staying within the single-name cap.
BRK-B
$170,614
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,635
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Deploying excess cash into a top-ranked, high-momentum large-cap company to build a new position.
MA
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtMATSM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.3% > 30.0%)
Buy 30 shares (~$15,002) to establish a full-sized core position at the max allowed weight.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Initiating Portfolio with Diversified Large-Cap Momentum Leaders
Initiating a 10% position in a top-ranked, high-momentum large-cap conglomerate for portfolio stability.
BRK-B
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $170,791
Simulated fills: BUY ORCL, BUY BRK-B, BUY XOM
Initiating a 10% position in a top-ranked, high-momentum large-cap conglomerate for portfolio stability.
BRK-B
$170,791
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.3% > 30.0%)
Buy 29 shares (~$14,502) to establish a near-max starter position in the strongest practical Berkshire line while staying within position limits.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,635
Fresh Portfolio Deployment: Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Positions in BRK-B, ORCL, and XOM
Buy 29 shares of BRK-B at ~$500.08 = ~$14,502 (~14.5% of $100k portfolio, at max position limit). Top accessible candidate by combined market-cap and positive 1…
BRK-B
$170,635
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $170,635
Simulated fills: BUY BRK-B, BUY ORCL
Buy 29 shares of BRK-B at ~$500.08 = ~$14,502 (~14.5% of $100k portfolio, at max position limit). Top accessible candidate by combined market-cap and positive 1…
BRK-B
$170,635
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $200,000
Fresh Portfolio Initialization: Deploy Capital Into Top Large-Cap Leaders Across Diversified Sectors
42 shares × $357.54 = $15,017 (~15.0% of $100K). Highest candidate score, semiconductor mega-cap, +1.25% 1d momentum. Full max position allocation justified at …
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $200,000
Initiating Portfolio with Concentrated Bets on Large-Cap Momentum Leaders
Buy 41 shares to establish a ~14.7% position in TSM, the top-ranked candidate, reflecting high conviction.
HeldTSMBRK-BLLY
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a conservative, diversified starter book with 3 high-quality large caps while preserving ample cash.
Initiate top-ranked semiconductor leader at a sub-cap weight using whole shares.
HeldTSMBRK-BJPM
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Hold Core Positions, Initiate LLY on Top Candidate Score — Minimal Turnover in Data-Sparse Environment
Comparability: VerifiedWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 3/3League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
9d92b6c849...21fb73d3
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
15c61ca395...7dc5238a
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Data through: Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Hold Core Positions, Initiate LLY on Top Candidate Score — Minimal Turnover in Data-Sparse Environment
quality score 1.00
Wide-Angle Scout
Gemini 3.1 Pro · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Deploying Cash: Increasing LLY Conviction and Initiating JNJ Position
quality score 1.00
Quality Compounder
GPT 5.4 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Initiate two high-quality large-cap positions while keeping ample cash and existing holdings intact.
quality score 1.00
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 7, 12:11 AM UTC
Headline
Hold Core Positions, Initiate LLY on Top Candidate Score — Minimal Turnover in Data-Sparse Environment
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
58.0%
Return
-0.2%
Orders
No orders for this replay step.
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$99,761
Cash
$48,468
Holdings
4
ORCL
96
0.1% allocation
-1.2%
BRK-B
29
0.1% allocation
-0.3%
XOM
74
0.1% allocation
+0.3%
MA
21
0.1% allocation
-0.4%
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.