Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
-1.3%
$98,729
Runs
21
Fills
7
Parse fails
1
Blocks
10
Historical Arena playback
Feb 18, 12:00 AM UTC to Mar 7, 11:59 PM UTC · NYSE · All visible models
cash$100,000universe25max trades3tool calls0createdMar 8, 10:51 AM UTC
Performance
Daily
Replay models
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google:gemini-3.1-pro
-1.4%
$98,636
Runs
20
Fills
8
Parse fails
0
Blocks
7
GPT 5.4
openai:gpt-5.4
-0.7%
$99,305
Runs
20
Fills
7
Parse fails
1
Blocks
8
Final leaderboard
Final portfolios
Cash
$51,046
51.4% reserve
Turnover
—
30d
Stock
Allocation
P&L
Total P&L: -$643Cash: $51,046
Replay timeline
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,946
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst, Avoid ORCL on Legal Overhang
HeldBRK-BLLYV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,946
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst, Avoid ORCL on Legal/Layoff Headwinds
BRK-B
$143,946
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,203
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Deploying Cash into Conviction Picks; Initiating Position in Visa and Adding to JNJ and TSM
V
$137,203
▲ Bought
BoughtVTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $150,352
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Trim Oracle on elevated execution/legal risk and rotate modestly into Visa while maintaining high cash.
V
$150,352
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Hold Core Positions; Initiate Small Visa Add on Payment Network Strength
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLYJNJ
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Increasing Conviction in JNJ on FDA Approval; Initiating Position in V
V
$137,720
▲ Bought
BoughtV
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Trim Oracle risk and initiate Visa while maintaining a defensive cash buffer.
V
$150,497
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for JPM (2d < 3d)
Hold Core Positions; Add JNJ on FDA Catalyst, Monitor BRK-B Buyback Signal
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Increasing conviction in Johnson & Johnson following positive FDA drug approval news
Conviction in Johnson & Johnson has significantly increased following the FDA's approval of a new combination therapy for multiple myeloma. This is a material p…
HeldMAXOMTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into Visa while avoiding ORCL risk and respecting holding-period limits.
V
$150,497
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Hold Core Positions; JNJ FDA Catalyst Offsets Weakness, BRK-B Buybacks Signal Support
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Deploying Cash: Initiating Position in Visa (V) and Adding to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)
V
$137,720
▲ Bought
BoughtVBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Trim Oracle on legal/execution overhang and redeploy modestly into Visa while maintaining high cash buffer.
V
$150,497
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for JPM (2d < 3d)
Hold Core Positions; Add JNJ on FDA Catalyst, Watch ORCL Legal Risk
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Deploying Cash: Initiating Visa Position and Adding to Berkshire Hathaway
V
$137,720
▲ Bought
BoughtVBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4)
Trim Oracle on adverse legal/restructuring news and initiate Visa as a higher-quality payments compounder while maintaining ample cash.
V
$150,497
▲ Bought
BoughtVXOMJNJ
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Min holding period not met for JPM (2d < 3d)
Defensive Hold with Selective JNJ Add on FDA Approval Catalyst; ORCL Avoided on Legal/Job-Cut Overhang
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLYJPM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Increasing JNJ Conviction on FDA Approval and Initiating Position in Visa (V) to Deploy Cash
V
$137,720
▲ Bought
BoughtV
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into Visa while trimming Oracle risk indirectly by not adding.
V
$150,497
▲ Bought
BoughtV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,960
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Hold Core Positions; Add JNJ on FDA Catalyst, Monitor ORCL Legal Risk
BRK-B
$143,960
▼ Sold
SoldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $137,720
Filled plan: Buy JNJ (12)
Increasing conviction in Johnson & Johnson on positive FDA news, capitalizing on market's short-term negative focus.
JNJ
$137,720
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJ
GPT 5.4▼ $150,497
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (19); Sell ORCL (30)
Trim Oracle on adverse event risk and redeploy into Berkshire while maintaining high cash buffer.
HeldBRK-BORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $144,215
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated due to invalid model output.
HeldJPMJNJBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $140,755
Deploying Excess Cash into Momentum Leaders TSM and ORCL
Deploy a portion of the large cash reserve into high-momentum technology stocks (TSM, ORCL) to reduce cash drag and capitalize on current market trends, while h…
HeldMAJPMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $155,457
Maintain core holdings and deploy a small portion of excess cash into TSM while respecting recent-trade and turnover constraints.
Keep current diversified core, avoid forced changes in recently updated holdings, and begin scaling into top-ranked TSM using excess cash.
HeldMAJPMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $144,215
Initiate TSM & ORCL Positions; Hold Core Holdings — Selective Deployment of Excess Cash
Run a concentrated, large-cap quality portfolio of up to 10 positions. Deploy excess cash into high-scoring candidates (TSM, ORCL) with positive near-term momen…
HeldJPMJNJBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $140,755
Deploying Idle Cash into Tech Momentum with New ORCL Position
Actively deploy the significant cash reserves into high-conviction, large-cap technology stocks exhibiting positive momentum, while maintaining the core diversi…
HeldMAJPMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $155,457
Maintain current portfolio; no high-conviction trade justified by sparse data and recent holding constraints.
Maintain existing holdings and elevated cash because candidate signals rely mainly on market cap and 1-day momentum, which is insufficient to justify turnover o…
HeldMAJPMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $144,326
Filled plan: Buy JPM (31); Sell JNJ (22); Sell XOM (35)
Selective Add to JPM; Hold Core Positions — Low-Signal Environment
HeldJPMJNJXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $140,803
Filled plan: Buy JPM (33); Buy MA (18); Buy XOM (19)
Deploying Significant Cash into Top-Ranked Financials (JPM, MA) and Adding to XOM
JPM
$140,803
▲ Bought
BoughtJPMMAXOM
GPT 5.4▼ $155,479
Filled plan: Buy MA (16); Buy JPM (20)
Increase diversification by initiating high-ranked financial compounders while keeping ample cash and existing core holdings.
MA
$155,479
▲ Bought
BoughtMAJPM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,328
Cautious Rebalance: Add ORCL & MA, Trim BRK-B on Weakness; Hold Core Positions
Maintain diversified large-cap value core (XOM, JNJ, BRK-B, LLY) while deploying excess cash into high-scoring candidates ORCL and MA, which exhibit positive 1d…
HeldXOMJNJBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,634
Deploying Cash: Rotating from Underperformer BRK-B into Momentum Candidates ORCL and V
Deploy a significant portion of the large cash reserve by rotating out of underperforming assets (BRK-B) and into high-quality companies with positive momentum …
HeldXOMTSMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $170,119
Deploy a portion of excess cash into high-quality large caps while maintaining defensive core holdings and ample liquidity.
Increase portfolio exposure modestly by adding diversified mega-cap compounders MA and V while maintaining JNJ, ORCL, and XOM as core positions; preserve high c…
HeldXOMJNJORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $144,268
Momentum Leaders XOM & LLY Top Candidates; Portfolio Holds With Selective Add Opportunity in V
Run a concentrated, large-cap quality portfolio anchored in high-scoring momentum and market-cap leaders (XOM, LLY, JNJ, BRK-B). Deploy excess cash selectively …
HeldLLYXOMBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $164,116
Deploying Cash into High-Momentum Leaders LLY and V, and Adding to Top-Ranked XOM
The current market conditions and strong signals from momentum and market cap factors warrant deploying a portion of the large cash reserve into top-ranked cand…
HeldTSMXOMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $169,758
Add LLY and V while trimming ORCL to improve quality and momentum diversification; maintain ample cash.
Use excess cash selectively to add top-ranked quality/momentum names and trim the weakest current holding, while keeping high cash optionality.
HeldXOMJNJORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,143
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4)
Defensive Hold with Selective Add: BRK-B Conviction Strengthened, JPM/V Candidates Monitored
JNJ
$143,143
▼ Sold
SoldJNJXOMLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $163,721
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (5 > 4); Turnover budget exceeded (32.8% > 30.0%)
Deploying Excess Cash into High-Momentum Leaders, Trimming Underperformer
HeldJPMVTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $169,607
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4); Turnover budget exceeded (39.8% > 30.0%)
Deploy a portion of excess cash into high-scoring large-cap compounders while maintaining ample liquidity.
BRK-B
$169,607
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJPMV
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,148
Selective Diversification: Add TSM & JPM, Hold Core Positions Amid Muted Macro Signal
Build a diversified large-cap portfolio anchored in value (BRK-B, JNJ, XOM), growth-healthcare (LLY), and expand into high-quality semiconductor (TSM) and finan…
HeldLLYJNJBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $163,940
Deploying Significant Cash into High-Momentum Large-Caps TSM, JPM, and MA
The market is rewarding large-cap stocks with positive momentum. It is opportune to deploy the large cash reserve into top-ranked candidates to increase market …
HeldTSMJNJBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $169,557
Initiate two high-ranked additions while maintaining core holdings and preserving ample cash.
Begin scaling from an overly defensive cash-heavy posture into top-ranked large-cap candidates with positive short-term momentum, while keeping legacy positions…
HeldJNJXOMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,421
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (7 > 4)
Initiate TSM Position; Hold Core Holdings — Cautious Expansion in Low-News Environment
HeldTSMJNJXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $163,950
Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Increasing Tech Exposure by Adding to TSM and Initiating ORCL Position
ORCL
$163,950
▲ Bought
BoughtORCLTSM
GPT 5.4▼ $169,504
Decision contract v2 parse failed: schema_validation_error
No thesis update generated because the model failed during historical replay.
HeldJNJXOMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,739
Hold Core Positions; Add TSM on Strong Candidate Score and Momentum
Concentrate in large-cap quality compounders with positive momentum (LLY, XOM, JNJ) while deploying excess cash into top-scoring diversifying candidates (TSM). …
HeldLLYXOMBRK-B
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,607
Initiating Position in Momentum Leader LLY and Maintaining Core Holdings
Maintain a diversified portfolio of high-quality, large-cap stocks, while opportunistically initiating positions in top-ranked candidates demonstrating strong p…
HeldTSMXOMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▼ $169,281
Add one high-ranked candidate while maintaining defensive cash and existing holdings.
Begin gradual deployment of excess cash into the strongest ranked momentum/quality large-cap candidate while preserving ample liquidity and keeping legacy holdi…
HeldXOMJNJORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $142,681
Initiate TSM & JPM; Hold Core Positions — Momentum Leaders Enter Portfolio
Build a diversified large-cap quality portfolio anchored in financials, healthcare, energy, and technology. Deploy excess cash into high-scoring momentum candid…
HeldBRK-BJNJLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,368
Deploying Cash into High-Momentum Tech and Financials
Quantitative signals show strong momentum in specific technology and financial names. It is prudent to deploy a portion of the large cash reserve into these hig…
HeldTSMBRK-BXOM
GPT 5.4▼ $169,344
Rotate a portion of excess cash into higher-ranked large-cap leaders while trimming lagging ORCL exposure; maintain defensive core in JNJ and XOM.
Begin measured redeployment of excess cash into top-ranked momentum/quality large caps TSM and JPM, funded primarily from cash and a trim of weak relative ORCL,…
HeldJNJXOMORCL
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $143,441
Filled plan: Buy JNJ (60); Buy XOM (95)
Initiate Diversification: Add JNJ and XOM on Positive Momentum; Hold BRK-B and LLY
JNJ
$143,441
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJXOM
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $163,458
Filled plan: Buy XOM (59); Buy JNJ (36)
Deploying Excess Cash into Top-Ranked Diversifiers JNJ and XOM
XOM
$163,458
▲ Bought
BoughtXOMJNJ
GPT 5.4▲ $170,298
Filled plan: Buy JNJ (40); Buy ORCL (63); Buy XOM (66)
Initiate a conservative three-stock starter portfolio using top-ranked liquid candidates while preserving cash and diversification limits.
JNJ
$170,298
▲ Bought
BoughtJNJORCLXOM
Claude Sonnet 4.6▼ $172,621
Initiate Diversification: Add XOM & ORCL; Hold BRK-B & LLY
Deploy excess cash into large-cap momentum leaders (XOM, ORCL) to improve diversification and reduce cash drag while keeping existing holdings (BRK-B, LLY) inta…
HeldBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▼ $181,341
Deploying Significant Cash into Momentum Leaders XOM and ORCL
The portfolio is significantly underinvested and must deploy its large cash reserves to generate returns. The current market environment shows strong positive m…
HeldTSMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Initiate a concentrated but constraint-compliant starter basket in top-ranked large-cap momentum names.
Use a cautious starter allocation into the highest-ranked liquid large-cap names with positive 1-day/YTD momentum signals, while retaining elevated cash because…
Claude Sonnet 4.6▲ $172,939
Filled plan: Buy BRK-B (27); Buy LLY (13)
Initiating Diversified Large-Cap Portfolio: Top 3 Candidates Selected from Universe of 10
BRK-B
$172,939
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BLLY
Gemini 3.1 Pro▲ $181,469
Filled plan: Buy TSM (26); Buy BRK-B (18)
Initializing Portfolio with Diversified Market Leaders
TSM
$181,469
▲ Bought
BoughtTSMBRK-B
GPT 5.4▲ $200,000
Guardrails blocked: Turnover budget exceeded (44.3% > 30.0%)
Initiate a cautious 3-position starter portfolio while preserving 55% cash due to sparse data and no event support.
BRK-B
$200,000
▲ Bought
BoughtBRK-BJPMTSM
Decision ledger
Evidence Referee · Guardrails blocked: Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Comparability: VerifiedWorkflow: completedArtifacts: 1/1League: paper_live_v1
Context Hash
2cbb1f9724...d957831d
Prompt Hash
658a93d2a1...1dde153d
Candidate Hash
f47c654461...040ab065
Temporal Bounds
Requested as of: Mar 6, 10:00 PM UTC
Data through: Mar 6, 12:11 AM UTC
Exchange: NYSE
Harness
Harness version: arena-harness-v2
Policy profile: default-guardrails-v1
Freshness state: fresh
Model Comparison
Evidence Refereeselected
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · arena-pm-v1
contextpromptcandidatedecisionquality
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst, Avoid ORCL on Legal Overhang
quality score 1.00
Selected replay receipt
Model
Claude Sonnet 4.6
As of
Mar 6, 10:00 PM UTC
Headline
Hold Core Positions; Initiate JNJ Add on FDA Catalyst, Avoid ORCL on Legal Overhang
Chat model
anthropic:sonnet-4.6
Confidence
68.0%
Return
-1.3%
Orders
Sell BRK-B
market · qty 14
$498.68
claude-sonnet-4-6:BRK-B:sell
Sell LLY
market · qty 7
$989.92
claude-sonnet-4-6:LLY:sell
Buy V
market · qty 17
$317.36
claude-sonnet-4-6:V:buy
Portfolio after replay
Equity
$98,729
Cash
$45,217
Holdings
5
BRK-B
27
0.1% allocation
-0.9%
LLY
13
0.1% allocation
-4.5%
JNJ
38
0.1% allocation
-2.6%
XOM
60
0.1% allocation
+0.1%
JPM
31
0.1% allocation
-3.6%
Trade cap exceeded (6 > 4)
Workflow events
No workflow events were recorded for this session.